M1 - PPI

202406
M1 - PPI
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最新值:-4.2%
前值:-2.8%
說(shuō)明

投資者經(jīng)常用M1-PPI來(lái)形容股票市場(chǎng)的剩余流動(dòng)性,大體邏輯在于,M1代表市場(chǎng)上的錢(qián),PPI代表進(jìn)入實(shí)體經(jīng)濟的錢(qián),于是兩者相減,即代表漏出到金融市場(chǎng)的錢(qián)。

M1 - PPI 剩余流動(dòng)性指標

①信用周期可以較大程度形容A股市場(chǎng)的剩余流動(dòng)性環(huán)境。當信用大幅擴張的時(shí)候,也是企業(yè)部門(mén)能夠通過(guò)各種手段大量拿到便宜資金的時(shí)候, 于是這一階段,一般都會(huì )發(fā)生所謂的“脫實(shí)入虛”,即企業(yè)部門(mén)將拿到的資金投入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)或者金融市場(chǎng)。

②作為一個(gè)驗證,信用周期的指標可以很好的同M1-PPI相互擬合。投資者經(jīng)常用M1-PPI來(lái)形容股票市場(chǎng)的剩余流動(dòng)性,大體邏輯在于,M1代 表市場(chǎng)上的錢(qián),PPI代表進(jìn)入實(shí)體經(jīng)濟的錢(qián),于是兩者相減,即代表漏出到金融市場(chǎng)的錢(qián)。

③最終,信用周期表征的剩余流動(dòng)性,很大程度決定了A股市場(chǎng)整體估值的水位。

【天風(fēng)證券研究所】

m1-ppi(天風(fēng)證券)
時(shí)間 M1同比 PPI同比 M1-PPI
2000-01 19.40% 0.03% 19.37%
2000-02 15.30% 1.00% 14.30%
2000-03 18.70% 1.87% 16.83%
2000-04 21.70% 2.59% 19.11%
2000-05 22.30% 2.50% 19.80%
2000-06 23.70% 2.95% 20.75%
2000-07 22.60% 4.50% 18.10%
2000-08 21.90% 3.92% 17.98%
2000-09 20.80% 3.70% 17.10%
2000-10 18.20% 3.60% 14.60%
2000-11 17.10% 3.50% 13.60%
2000-12 16.00% 2.80% 13.20%
2001-01 16.80% 1.43% 15.37%
2001-02 16.40% 0.90% 15.50%
2001-03 17.40% 0.22% 17.18%
2001-04 15.00% -0.12% 15.12%
2001-05 13.00% -0.20% 13.20%
2001-06 14.90% -0.56% 15.46%
2001-07 11.90% -1.27% 13.17%
2001-08 14.20% -1.99% 16.19%
2001-09 12.30% -2.90% 15.20%
2001-10 12.30% -3.10% 15.40%
2001-11 11.40% -3.72% 15.12%
2001-12 12.70% -3.97% 16.67%
2002-01 9.50% -4.00% 13.50%
2002-02 10.90% -4.10% 15.00%
2002-03 10.10% -3.98% 14.08%
2002-04 11.50% -3.06% 14.56%
2002-05 14.60% -2.63% 17.23%
2002-06 12.80% -2.48% 15.28%
2002-07 17.00% -2.34% 19.34%
2002-08 14.60% -1.73% 16.33%
2002-09 15.90% -1.38% 17.28%
2002-10 17.90% -1.03% 18.93%
2002-11 18.50% -0.41% 18.91%
2002-12 16.80% 0.41% 16.39%
2003-01 19.50% 2.38% 17.12%
2003-02 18.80% 3.97% 14.83%
2003-03 20.10% 4.60% 15.50%
2003-04 18.00% 3.62% 14.38%
2003-05 18.80% 1.96% 16.84%
2003-06 20.20% 1.34% 18.86%
2003-07 20.00% 1.39% 18.61%
2003-08 18.80% 1.38% 17.42%
2003-09 18.50% 1.37% 17.13%
2003-10 19.60% 1.20% 18.40%
2003-11 18.90% 1.92% 16.98%
2003-12 18.70% 2.99% 15.71%
2004-01 15.70% 3.47% 12.23%
2004-02 19.80% 3.54% 16.26%
2004-03 20.10% 3.99% 16.11%
2004-04 20.00% 5.01% 14.99%
2004-05 18.60% 5.70% 12.90%
2004-06 16.20% 6.40% 9.80%
2004-07 15.00% 6.38% 8.62%
2004-08 15.10% 6.81% 8.29%
2004-09 13.70% 7.90% 5.80%
2004-10 12.60% 8.43% 4.17%
2004-11 13.80% 8.10% 5.70%
2004-12 13.60% 7.07% 6.53%
2005-01 15.30% 5.81% 9.49%
2005-02 10.60% 5.38% 5.22%
2005-03 9.90% 5.64% 4.26%
2005-04 10.00% 5.78% 4.22%
2005-05 10.40% 5.90% 4.50%
2005-06 11.30% 5.24% 6.06%
2005-07 11.00% 5.19% 5.81%
2005-08 11.50% 5.26% 6.24%
2005-09 11.60% 4.50% 7.10%
2005-10 12.10% 4.01% 8.09%
2005-11 12.70% 3.21% 9.49%
2005-12 11.80% 3.22% 8.58%
2006-01 10.60% 3.05% 7.55%
2006-02 12.40% 3.01% 9.39%
2006-03 12.70% 2.49% 10.21%
2006-04 12.50% 1.87% 10.63%
2006-05 14.00% 2.43% 11.57%
2006-06 13.90% 3.52% 10.38%
2006-07 15.30% 3.58% 11.72%
2006-08 15.60% 3.40% 12.20%
2006-09 15.70% 3.45% 12.25%
2006-10 16.30% 2.90% 13.40%
2006-11 16.80% 2.78% 14.02%
2006-12 17.50% 3.05% 14.45%
2007-01 19.80% 3.30% 16.50%
2007-02 21.00% 2.60% 18.40%
2007-03 19.80% 2.65% 17.15%
2007-04 20.00% 2.87% 17.13%
2007-05 19.30% 2.76% 16.54%
2007-06 20.90% 2.49% 18.41%
2007-07 20.90% 2.39% 18.51%
2007-08 22.80% 2.56% 20.24%
2007-09 22.10% 2.71% 19.39%
2007-10 22.20% 3.21% 18.99%
2007-11 21.70% 4.55% 17.15%
2007-12 21.00% 5.43% 15.57%
2008-01 20.50% 6.07% 14.43%
2008-02 19.00% 6.62% 12.38%
2008-03 18.00% 7.95% 10.05%
2008-04 19.10% 8.12% 10.98%
2008-05 17.90% 8.22% 9.68%
2008-06 14.20% 8.84% 5.36%
2008-07 14.00% 10.03% 3.97%
2008-08 11.50% 10.06% 1.44%
2008-09 9.40% 9.13% 0.27%
2008-10 8.90% 6.59% 2.31%
2008-11 6.80% 1.99% 4.81%
2008-12 9.10% -1.14% 10.24%
2009-01 6.70% -3.35% 10.05%
2009-02 10.90% -4.47% 15.37%
2009-03 17.00% -5.99% 22.99%
2009-04 17.50% -6.60% 24.10%
2009-05 18.70% -7.20% 25.90%
2009-06 24.80% -7.80% 32.60%
2009-07 26.40% -8.22% 34.62%
2009-08 27.70% -7.86% 35.56%
2009-09 29.50% -6.99% 36.49%
2009-10 32.00% -5.85% 37.85%
2009-11 36.60% -2.08% 38.68%
2009-12 32.40% 1.70% 30.70%
2010-01 39.00% 4.32% 34.68%
2010-02 35.00% 5.39% 29.61%
2010-03 29.90% 5.91% 23.99%
2010-04 31.30% 6.81% 24.49%
2010-05 29.90% 7.13% 22.77%
2010-06 24.60% 6.41% 18.19%
2010-07 22.90% 4.84% 18.06%
2010-08 21.90% 4.32% 17.58%
2010-09 20.90% 4.33% 16.57%
2010-10 22.10% 5.04% 17.06%
2010-11 22.10% 6.06% 16.04%
2010-12 21.20% 5.93% 15.27%
2011-01 13.60% 6.64% 6.96%
2011-02 14.50% 7.23% 7.27%
2011-03 15.00% 7.31% 7.69%
2011-04 12.90% 6.82% 6.08%
2011-05 12.70% 6.79% 5.91%
2011-06 13.10% 7.12% 5.98%
2011-07 11.60% 7.54% 4.06%
2011-08 11.20% 7.25% 3.95%
2011-09 8.90% 6.52% 2.38%
2011-10 8.40% 5.00% 3.40%
2011-11 7.80% 2.72% 5.08%
2011-12 7.90% 1.69% 6.21%
2012-01 3.20% 0.73% 2.47%
2012-02 4.30% 0.03% 4.27%
2012-03 4.40% -0.32% 4.72%
2012-04 3.10% -0.70% 3.80%
2012-05 3.50% -1.40% 4.90%
2012-06 4.70% -2.08% 6.78%
2012-07 4.60% -2.87% 7.47%
2012-08 4.50% -3.48% 7.98%
2012-09 7.30% -3.55% 10.85%
2012-10 6.10% -2.76% 8.86%
2012-11 5.50% -2.20% 7.70%
2012-12 6.50% -1.94% 8.44%
2013-01 15.30% -1.64% 16.94%
2013-02 9.50% -1.63% 11.13%
2013-03 11.80% -1.92% 13.72%
2013-04 11.90% -2.62% 14.52%
2013-05 11.30% -2.87% 14.17%
2013-06 9.00% -2.70% 11.70%
2013-07 9.70% -2.27% 11.97%
2013-08 9.90% -1.63% 11.53%
2013-09 8.90% -1.34% 10.24%
2013-10 8.90% -1.51% 10.41%
2013-11 9.40% -1.42% 10.82%
2013-12 9.30% -1.36% 10.66%
2014-01 1.20% -1.64% 2.84%
2014-02 6.90% -2.02% 8.92%
2014-03 5.40% -2.30% 7.70%
2014-04 5.50% -2.00% 7.50%
2014-05 5.70% -1.45% 7.15%
2014-06 8.90% -1.11% 10.01%
2014-07 6.70% -0.87% 7.57%
2014-08 5.70% -1.20% 6.90%
2014-09 4.80% -1.80% 6.60%
2014-10 3.20% -2.24% 5.44%
2014-11 3.20% -2.69% 5.89%
2014-12 3.20% -3.32% 6.52%
2015-01 10.60% -4.32% 14.92%
2015-02 5.60% -4.80% 10.40%
2015-03 2.90% -4.56% 7.46%
2015-04 3.70% -4.57% 8.27%
2015-05 4.70% -4.61% 9.31%
2015-06 4.30% -4.81% 9.11%
2015-07 6.60% -5.37% 11.97%
2015-08 9.30% -5.92% 15.22%
2015-09 11.40% -5.95% 17.35%
2015-10 14.00% -5.90% 19.90%
2015-11 15.70% -5.90% 21.60%
2015-12 15.20% -5.90% 21.10%
2016-01 18.60% -5.30% 23.90%
2016-02 17.40% -4.90% 22.30%
2016-03 22.10% -4.30% 26.40%
2016-04 22.90% -3.40% 26.30%
2016-05 23.70% -2.80% 26.50%
2016-06 24.60% -2.60% 27.20%
2016-07 25.40% -1.70% 27.10%
2016-08 25.30% -0.80% 26.10%
2016-09 24.70% 0.10% 24.60%
2016-10 23.90% 1.20% 22.70%
2016-11 22.70% 3.30% 19.40%
2016-12 21.40% 5.50% 15.90%
2017-01 14.50% 6.90% 7.60%
2017-02 21.40% 7.80% 13.60%
2017-03 18.80% 7.60% 11.20%
2017-04 18.50% 6.40% 12.10%
2017-05 17.00% 5.50% 11.50%
2017-06 15.00% 5.50% 9.50%
2017-07 15.30% 5.50% 9.80%
2017-08 14.00% 6.30% 7.70%
2017-09 14.00% 6.90% 7.10%
2017-10 13.00% 6.90% 6.10%
2017-11 12.70% 5.80% 6.90%
2017-12 11.80% 4.90% 6.90%
2018-01 15.00% 4.30% 10.70%
2018-02 8.50% 3.70% 4.80%
2018-03 7.10% 3.10% 4.00%
2018-04 7.20% 3.40% 3.80%
2018-05 6.00% 4.10% 1.90%
2018-06 6.60% 4.70% 1.90%
2018-07 5.10% 4.60% 0.50%
2018-08 3.90% 4.10% -0.20%
2018-09 4.00% 3.60% 0.40%
2018-10 2.70% 3.30% -0.60%
2018-11 1.50% 2.70% -1.20%
2018-12 1.50% 0.90% 0.60%
2019-01 0.40% 0.10% 0.30%
2019-02 2.00% 0.10% 1.90%
2019-03 4.60% 0.40% 4.20%
2019-04 2.90% 0.90% 2.00%
2019-05 3.40% 0.60% 2.80%
2019-06 4.40% 0.00% 4.40%
2019-07 3.10% -0.30% 3.40%
2019-08 3.40% -0.80% 4.20%
2019-09 3.40% -1.20% 4.60%
2019-10 3.30% -1.60% 4.90%
2019-11 3.50% -1.40% 4.90%
2019-12 4.40% -0.50% 4.90%
2020-01 0.00% 0.10% -0.10%
2020-02 4.80% -0.40% 5.20%
2020-03 5.00% -1.50% 6.50%
2020-04 5.50% -3.10% 8.60%
2020-05 6.80% -3.70% 10.50%
2020-06 6.50% -3.00% 9.50%
2020-07 6.90% -2.40% 9.30%
2020-08 8.00% -2.00% 10.00%
2020-09 8.10% -2.10% 10.20%
2020-10 9.10% -2.10% 11.20%
2020-11 10.00% -1.50% 11.50%
2020-12 8.60% -0.40% 9.00%
2021-01 14.70% 0.30% 14.40%
2021-02 7.40% 1.70% 5.70%
2021-03 7.10% 4.40% 2.70%
2021-04 6.20% 6.80% -0.60%
2021-05 6.10% 9.00% -2.90%
2021-06 5.50% 8.80% -3.30%
2021-07 4.90% 9.00% -4.10%
2021-08 4.20% 9.50% -5.30%
2021-09 3.70% 10.70% -7.00%
2021-10 2.80% 13.50% -10.70%
2021-11 3.00% 12.90% -9.90%
2021-12 3.50% 10.30% -6.80%
2022-01 -1.90% 9.10% -11.00%
2022-02 4.70% 8.80% -4.10%
2022-03 4.70% 8.30% -3.60%
2022-04 5.10% 8.00% -2.90%
2022-05 4.60% 6.40% -1.80%
2022-06 5.80% 6.10% -0.30%
2022-07 6.70% 4.20% 2.50%
2022-08 6.10% 2.30% 3.80%
2022-09 6.40% 0.90% 5.50%
2022-10 5.80% -1.30% 7.10%
2022-11 4.60% -1.30% 5.90%
2022-12 3.70% -0.70% 4.40%
2023-01 6.70% -0.80% 7.50%
2023-02 5.80% -1.40% 7.20%
2023-03 5.10% -2.50% 7.60%
2023-04 5.30% -3.60% 8.90%
2023-05 4.70% -4.60% 9.30%
2023-06 3.10% -5.40% 8.50%
2023-07 2.30% -4.40% 6.70%
2023-08 2.20% -3.00% 5.20%
2023-09 2.10% -2.50% 4.60%
2023-10 1.90% -2.60% 4.50%
2023-11 1.30% -3.00% 4.30%
2023-12 1.30% -2.70% 4.00%
2024-01 5.90% -2.50% 8.40%
2024-02 1.20% -2.70% 3.90%
2024-03 1.10% -2.80% 3.90%
2024-04 -1.40% -2.50% 1.10%
2024-05 -4.20% -1.40% -2.80%
2024-06 -5.00% -0.80% -4.20%

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